By Nicholas Carl | Co-Author: Kyra Rauschenbach | Contributors: Omer Niazi, Jacob Jones, and Ali Mackie.
Iran’s mounting economic crisis is pushing the Islamic Republic to take aggressive actions abroad and domestically. The Iranian rial reached record lows this week, having lost over half its value in 2020. The Iranian regime fears protests in response to the recession and has injected billions of dollars into the economy to stabilize the rial. Iran’s most recent major protest waves—the Dey Protests of 2017–2018 and the gasoline riots in November 2019—started with economic triggers but soon adopted anti-regime tones.
Iranian leaders are pursuing more trade with Venezuela to bolster remaining currency reserves in preparation for another intervention in the currency market. Iran agreed in April to exchange fuel and technical expertise needed to restart energy infrastructure for $500 million of Venezuelan gold. Thirteen Iranian fuel tankers have sailed to Venezuela since May, but the US confiscated the cargo of four of them in August. Tehran also likely offered to help Caracas mobilize paramilitary supporters and take greater control of its information space. This technical assistance is harder for the US to interdict than Iran’s fuel shipments. The Islamic Republic could also try to sell Venezuela military hardware, particularly after the UN arms embargo on Iran expires.
Iran’s security forces are expanding their local presence to deter public displays of dissent. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) deployed Basij patrol teams in Tehran and the historically restive Arab-majority Khuzestan province to preempt public gatherings. The Basij Organization is a paramilitary body under the IRGC that recruits regime supporters, indoctrinates members, produces state propaganda, suppresses political dissent, and cracks down on protests. The patrols are part of an expanding neighborhood security strategy to increase local force presence and surveillance capabilities. Continue reading the full article at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute.
For citation, use the following reference: Nicholas Carl, "Iran File: Tehran Increases Local Security and Strengthens Ties to Venezuela Amid Economic Crisis," Critical Threats Project (AEI), October 08, 2023, Co-Author: Kyra Rauschenbach, Contributors: Omer Niazi, Jacob Jones, and Ali Mackie.
Property of the American Enterprise Institutes' (AEI) Critial Threats Project
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