By Nicholas Carl | Co-Author: Kyra Rauschenbach | Contributors: Omer Niazi, Jacob Jones, and Ali Mackie.
Revenues from arms sales may help the Iranian regime finance its domestic security measures. Iranian officials will aim to make a net profit from weapons sales now that the UN arms embargo has expired. The Iranian government faces unprecedented economic challenges while struggling to contain a persistent anti-regime protest movement and instability in key Iran-friendly states Lebanon, Syria and Iraq.
Iranian officials have recently negotiated new defense deals abroad, likely preparing to sell weapons in Yemen, Syria, Afghanistan, and Mauritania among other countries. Venezuela may also seek to buy long-range missiles from Iran.
Iran faces a new level of insecurity within and along its borders. The effects from the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict has spilled into Iran. Mortar fire and drones have fallen into Iranian territory, and limited pro-Azeri protests broke out in Iran’s northwestern provinces at the beginning of October. Iranian Azeris, a quarter of Iran’s population, are dissatisfied with the regime’s tacit support for Armenia over the years.
Iranian leaders ultimately are unlikely to increase open support for Azerbaijan to placate to these relatively rare displays of Azeri nationalism due to geopolitical realities. Iran’s top military commanders are *increasingly concerned about potential extremist fighters among Turkish-backed militant groups deployed to Azerbaijan that could increase the threat of terrorism within Iran’s borders. The regime risks igniting further anti-regime sentiment in Azeri-majority northwestern provinces if it stays neutral in the conflict or if it more openly condemns Turkish-Azerbaijani forces for initiating a conflict that destabilizes the border. Continue reading the full article at the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute.
For citation, use the following reference: Nicholas Carl, "Iran File: Iranian Leaders Seek to Capitalize on the Expiration of the Arms Embargo," Critical Threats Project (AEI), October 30, 2023, Co-Author: Kyra Rauschenbach, Contributors: Omer Niazi, Jacob Jones, and Ali Mackie.
Property of the American Enterprise Institutes' (AEI) Critial Threats Project
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